Is war between China and the US inevitable?

Thucydides's Shadow Over the Pacific

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China dominate headlines, as economic interdependence clashes with strategic suspicions and the possibility of unintended escalation grows more real by the day. In this climate, the risk of great-power rivalry tipping into open conflict feels immediate and urgent, shaping everything from supply chains to security alliances.

Graham Allison's talk offers a historical lens for this moment. Drawing on Thucydides's Trap, he argues that a rising China and a dominant America could head toward a violent collision no one wants. He illustrates the pattern with the ancient warning that "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable," showing how structural stresses have repeatedly produced war across centuries.

Allison's framework both reinforces and reframes today's conversation. It strengthens the case that current frictions are not merely policy disputes but symptoms of a deeper power transition. At the same time, it complicates fatalism by insisting the trap is not destiny; deliberate choices can alter the trajectory before collision occurs.

• The talk highlights fear as the accelerant that turns competition into catastrophe.
• It positions history as a diagnostic tool rather than a script, urging leaders to recognize patterns early.
• It reframes multipolar tensions as manageable if both sides prioritize avoiding the trap's logic.

How will the United States and China apply these lessons to steer away from escalation, and what specific steps must each take now to prove the trap can be escaped?